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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, coming around the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.