Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Nicole Gilbert
Nicole Gilbert

Elara is a seasoned academic mentor with a passion for helping students excel in their educational journeys and professional endeavors.